Milwaukee’s WOW Counties and the Coming Battle for Wisconsin

On Wednesday, GOP candidates for president will take the stage in Milwaukee for the first primary debate of the 2024 cycle. Eleven months later, the party will once again convene at Fiserv Forum to crown their nominee. After hosting the pandemic-limited DNC in 2020, Milwaukee becomes the first city to host back-to-back conventions in more than four decades.

Although Democrats will be 100 miles south in the Windy City for their convention this year, the Biden campaign has certainly not forgotten Milwaukee. Vice President Kamala Harris has already visited the city twice since launching her campaign schedule. Last Tuesday, President Joe Biden stopped in Milwaukee to tour a wind turbine facility, his third trip to the Badger State this calendar year.

Milwaukee’s place on center stage is well earned. Few areas will play a more crucial role in deciding the presidential election. The GOP, however, is less concerned with competing in the city itself, which votes overwhelmingly Democratic, and more with their performance in the surrounding suburbs.

Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—the “WOW” counties—were once a deep red collar around an equally blue Milwaukee. Though still far more Republican than corresponding Midwestern suburbs—think Michigan’s Oakland County and Illinois’s DuPage County—the WOW counties have still trended leftwards in the era of Trump. Between 2016 and 2020, despite dramatically higher turnout, the GOP net vote gain from the trio dropped nearly 10,000 votes. Should Republicans hope to carry Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, they must stem the bleeding in the Milwaukee suburbs.

A pair of recent state legislature special elections—Senate District 8 (SD-8) and Assembly District 24 (AD-24)—offer mixed signs for the GOP.

First, the expected: the Republican advantage in each legislative district has declined considerably in recent years. In 2016, Trump carried SD-8 by 12.2 points and AD-24 by 23.6. Four years later, his margin of victory had declined to 4.9 and 16.5, respectively. Should Trump emerge as the nominee for the third time, a similar drop is likely—and SD-8 may even flip blue.

However, in well-educated white suburbs, rising Democratic vote share is hardly a new phenomenon. What’s fascinating about these two districts is the dramatic Democratic overperformance in off-year, down-ballot special elections. In April, the Democratic nominee in SD-8 lost to Republican Dan Knodl by less than 2 points. Just last month, Democrats lost AD-24 by 7.4 points, well above the presidential baseline.

There are two primary explanations for the surprising results. First, Republicans traditionally have enjoyed advantages with highly educated voters who cast a ballot in every election. But as Democrats increasingly become a party of college-educated whites, the built-in GOP advantage in low-turnout special elections may be fading. In a high-turnout general election scenario, however, this would be of little concern. More worrying for Republicans is the second explanation: the current political environment, despite perceptions of a poor economy, continues to benefit Democrats—particularly in the suburbs. The April and July vote totals counted only in the thousands, so drawing broad conclusions is difficult, especially with the general election still 15 months away. But if Biden can lop off a yet another sizeable portion of the GOP’s WOW margin, Wisconsin Republicans are in trouble.

The 2022 Senate results do offer a bright spot for Republicans in the Milwaukee suburbs. Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson reversed the party’s slide in SD-8 and AD-24, carrying each by well more than Trump did two years prior. More interesting is the level of ticket splitting when compared to the governor’s race: Johnson outperformed gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels by 5 points in each district. A noticeable portion of WOW voters decided to cast their ballots for Democrat Tony Evers and Republican Ron Johnson. Though each man’s incumbency certainly helped, the ticket splitting offers important strategy lessons for Republicans. If Republicans can match Johnson’s suburban margins, they stand a much stronger chance of flipping Wisconsin, especially if ancestrally Democratic rural Wisconsin continues shifting right.

There is plenty of time for the issue landscape to change prior to next November. General election polling remains unreliable and fluky special elections can lend false confidence. Barring an unforeseen landslide, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington will remain in Republican hands for another cycle. But in a battleground like Wisconsin, margins matter. The attention the Milwaukee metro is receiving is well justified and will only increase as the election heats up.